So I enjoy reading Deadspin on occasion, sometimes checking out Drew Magary’s Funblog where he answers reader questions - usually few directly pertain to sports. A couple weeks ago, one reader wrote in asking: If you were a cop, would you ever pull someone over in the rain (presuming you aren’t a Seattle cop)? This got me wondering: are cops less likely to pull a person over in the rain?
Last week I examined how one can use logistic regression to estimate the value of a timeout, with minimal success. I promised a better way to estimate this value which frees us from some of the inherent limitations to logistic regression, mainly that the value of timeouts are linear (e.g. the difference in win probability from 3 to 2 timeouts is the same as from 2 to 1) and constant (e.
On December 27, the Pittsburgh Steelers were down 13-3 against their rivals, the Baltimore Ravens, after the first half. The Ravens opened the second half with the ball, but quickly punted the ball following a three-and-out drive. On the following possession, the Steelers took over the ball on their own 21 yard line, and made a short gain followed by an incomplete pass. Facing second and 5 from their 26 yard line, Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger had a problem: the play clock was winding down and the team was not yet set.
In the past few weeks, Arthur Chu has plowed through his competition on Jeopardy! to a now complete 11-game winning streak, collecting almost $300,000 in the process. Much has been written on his unique playing style and how polarizing this has become. In short, Chu uses the Forrest Bounce to throw off his opponents and control the board. This has the added benefit of allowing Chu to quickly find the Daily Doubles, increasing his opportunities to amass a large lead and put the game out of reach to his opponents.